Strategy (MSTR) holds 767,000 Bitcoin and trades at just 1.07x NAV - the cheapest in 2+ years. In our base case (BTC $200K by 2029), MSTR returns 5.6x from today's price. The risks are real but manageable. This is the highest-conviction leveraged Bitcoin play in public equity markets.

Forget the software business. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is a publicly traded Bitcoin holding company. It buys Bitcoin using debt, preferred stock, and equity issuance - then holds it. That's the entire business model.

At $125, you're buying $117 of Bitcoin per share plus a 7% premium for the "machine." In the 2024 bull run, investors paid 2–3x NAV for this optionality. Today you're getting it for 1.07x - as close to buying Bitcoin outright, with free leverage attached, as this stock has ever offered.

MSTR has fallen 77% from its all-time high. That's the price of leverage in a downturn. But if the cycle plays out like prior ones, the upside from here is multiples - not percentages.

Assumptions for 2029: ~900K BTC, ~480M diluted shares, ~$13B debt + preferred.

MSTR Price by 2029

Return multiple from $125 entry

The worse 2026 gets, the better the 2029 entry becomes. At a $75 entry (BTC ~$49K), base-case returns jump to 6.8–9.3x. At $50 entry (BTC ~$35K), they reach 10–14x.

The rule: If BTC goes meaningfully higher, MSTR amplifies by 1.4–2.3x. If BTC goes sideways or down, MSTR underperforms. MSTR is for conviction, not hedging.

This is research, not financial advice. MSTR is a high-volatility, leveraged instrument. Position size accordingly. Never invest more than you can afford to lose in any single name.

Authors: Deepak Garg, Vansh Batra